Whilst I didn’t think I would add to the blog until nearly August, given what is occurring I still wish to add briefly if I am making any trades. I didn’t see all that many other blogs operating along those lines so I at least want to keep the flow and transparency going even if I am taking a break from writing too much here.
I have only made 2 trades in stocks which I will mention, and then mention my plans with the derivatives trades I am holding.
Sold all my AAC at 1.80
Purchased some MVT at 0.14, will write more at a later date.
I have open 2 shorts on the Dow Jones at about 17,700 which hedges about 8% of my portfolio that were made around the end of April. As I write they are trading at 17,250 and I hold. The stops are now at 18,505 in the September contract.
I am holding a couple of small put option trades on the S&P 500. Firstly bought at 21 then repeated the same trade at 13.4, the current level as I write is at about 22 though the bid offer is very wide. Interestingly the VIX at the time was 15 or lower which attracted me to the puts, as I write it has been over 25.
Indicative levels on the S&P 500 as I write are 2,015. Over the next month if I am lucky enough to see 1,900 level I would ideally like to take profits on the put options though this may be wishful thinking. Then I would bring down the stops on the Dow Jones.
I was also long a robusta coffee position with the entry at 1,594. This rolls into a new contract next week and leading up to Brexit I had increased the trailing stop to take a profit at 1,653. I wouldn’t be surprised if this gets hit tonight, last night it closed at 1,682.
I have no shorter term currency trades on but as mentioned am slightly underweight in the portfolio against my target AUD exposure.
Gold is surging and I am not reducing any exposure here. As mentioned previously I will run trailing profit stops on most of my gold exposures that are far below current levels. Other than that I can’t see much on my radar trading wise. I don’t glance too often at the portfolio values but obviously the way Gold has traded and with a fairly high cash equivalents percentage in my portfolio the last 24 hours has been fine I suspect.
I don’t have a clue about opining on the Brexit implications. Some of the above protection I have discussed is more about high valuations in the U.S. , complacency with the length of the bull market, and Gold being relatively under owned given so much of the bond universe trades with negative yields. Therefore whether it be Brexit or something else the market has looked vulnerable which I have written about previously.
As I’ve said before the shorter term derivative trading is in the context of my overall holdings and it is at times to give protection so that I can peruse opportunities on the long side without constantly being fearful of corrections. I really don’t have a clue how things will trade in the next week that is for sure, so good luck!