I just placed this blog post via editing an older update. I didn’t necessarily want this going out to subscribers as an email as I don’t want to imply I am getting certain precise investment returns (some will see these as poor, others good).
For example they are only a portion of my ideas, this assumes equal weightings, what new position replaces a previous one? I may have made errors, the list goes on! I figure it’s better than nothing though and without some type of reflecting back on performance, the blog can become dull.
The purpose is to make sure I follow up any stocks I mentioned I was holding. There are enough investors out there on the internet only talking about the winners and forgetting about the losers. Hopefully this section prevents that.
Since the average holding period for a stock mentioned on this blog is getting far closer to a year now, I thought I would provide an update.
The average return on each stock as I write was very close to positive 20%, and I mentioned 63 stocks as holds at one point or another. I haven’t of course reflected the cash I hold, which I have often stated is quite significant. Offsetting that to some extent is that thus far the average hold period is only about ten months.
I believe since the start of 2016 when I began blogging, the ASX200 Accumulation has probably delivered about 9% per annum as I update this today. The S&P500 total return perhaps more like 15% per annum.
Here is the table and apologies it doesn’t look professional. I never anticipated I would keep blogging this long so that is my excuse! As you will read further down I will make a more streamlined effort to do a bit of tracking in the future that I can keep up with.
|BUY PRICE||P @FEB 12 2018||%||date bought|
|OR PRICE WHEN||OR SOLD LEVEL||CHANGE||/ mentioned||date if sold|
|rny (sold avg)||0.26||0.15||-42%||20/01/2016||14/07/2016|
|ssm (sold avg)||0.52||1.103333333||112%||20/01/2016||5/07/2017|
|ptb (sold inc div)||0.38||0.65||71%||20/01/2016||6/12/2016|
|acl (sold inc c ret)||0.095||0.104||9%||20/01/2016||29/04/2016|
|kbc (sold avg)||0.17||0.1575||-7%||20/01/2016||7/09/2016|
|uos (inc divs)||0.5||0.71||42%||20/01/2016|
|gjt (wound up)||1.96||2.777||42%||27/01/2016||31/10/2016|
|aik (sold avg)||0.105||0.135||29%||29/03/2016||18/11/2017|
|3918:hk (sold inc divs)||3.88||6.35||64%||13/02/2016||11/12/2017|
|nge (adj consol)||0.38||0.39||3%||13/02/2016||14/02/2017|
|aiq (inc cap ret)||0.105||0.102||-3%||2/03/2016|
|vnl:ln (sold part)||0.61||0.9525||56%||2/03/2016|
|mel (ex c ret)||0.054||0.073||35%||20/01/2016||1/12/2016|
|apw ( inc divs)||1.2||1.759||47%||2/03/2016|
|kar (sold avg )||1.45||1.51||4%||29/04/2016||16/05/2017|
|snc (sold inc div)||0.835||1.07||28%||2/08/2016||14/02/2017|
|hhv (sold avg)||1.22||1.3725||13%||16/05/2016||21/07/2016|
|mvt (sold avg)||0.14||0.1625||16%||24/06/2016||14/02/2017|
|ref (inc divs)||0.12||0.096||-20%||22/07/2016|
|agf (wind up)||0.955||1.0195||7%||9/09/2016|
|cya (sold inc divs)||0.825||0.982||19%||23/09/2016||29/05/2017|
|tgg (inc div)||1.17||1.455||24%||19/11/2016|
|CEE:US (inc div)||20.55||26.14||27%||16/12/2016|
|tts (sold inc divs)||4.42||4.595||4%||16/12/2016||22/11/2017|
|SVWPA (inc divs)||71.66||88.18||23%||16/12/2016|
|pai (inc div)||1||1.265||27%||9/06/2017|
|jyc (inc div)||1.7||1.64||-4%||3/05/2017|
|fgg (inc div)||1.095||1.18||8%||17/08/2017|
|Average return of stock||19.8%||Average months held|
Another reason I updated this today is I noticed a relatively diverse 13 or so remaining positions. For a bit of fun and simplicity I figured I would track the remaining 13 in share sights. To make it easier I have ceased tracking some holdings offshore or that will be wound up. For example VNL:LN (almost competed wind up), AIQ (likely I tender in buyback), AGF (almost completed wind up). Some commodity flavoured positions like CEE:US, MAH & ILU I am likely exiting on trailing stops and wont track going forward. I am endeavouring to capture a steadier, income focused, passive approach with this experiment.
The ASX200 is about 5,820 & the S&P500 about 2,620 just for a bit of future reference. I will incorporate a notional cash position of about 13% in this share sights portfolio. I wanted to conduct a bit of an experiment how this can go relatively untouched. A bit like the “all weather” portfolio concept. At a glance the remaining holdings appeared fairly well diversified and most should produce some steady income. Perhaps this only needs to be rebalanced once a year. Here it is below. Although I own the stocks at the time of this Feb 12, 2018 update they are less than half the number of stocks I own. The share sights positions are just a fictional portfolio of holdings made for a fun experiment. Please read this disclaimer first.
Please do not go out and copy the portfolio. I may trade out of the stocks mentioned at any time and not make that clear on this blog. My circumstances and financial goals are likely very different to that of readers. Please seek the relevant personal financial advice from the appropriate qualified professionals before making decisions on your portfolio. I am not licensed as a financial advisor.
The share sights experiment as at Feb 12, 2018. Plugged in $20 brokerage and assumed the closing prices to begin things.
BELOW WAS THE OLD POST FROM OCTOBER, 2016.
As mentioned here last blog post, here is a snapshot of how the stocks I have mentioned this year have gone. Also as discussed in the last blog post, I can’t guarantee I can keep this tracking up as it is a little onerous. I imagine though I will be posting less of my actual trades going forward, so that may assist in at least loosely tracking how stocks discussed have fared. I want to achieve a balance of not coming across as a stock tipster and promoter to follow directly, but at the same make many of my investment thoughts accountable as to their progress. If I never occasionally look back at some of the performance, the blog may lack a bit of purpose.
I want to clearly state this gives an overly flattering look at things, bearing in mind for most of the year I have often advocated holding more than 30% in cash. There have been times that to get to that notional 30% cash equivalents I have lost money shorting equities indices that are not captured below, likewise some leakage on losing on some short-term trades achieving my desired currency targets. We also must remember any fund manager in Australia that typically searched beyond the large caps I believe should have done quite well. If you have money in a small cap fund that hasn’t achieved solid performance this year you should ask some questions about that. On the flipside though it is probably worth noting that many of the returns I state here have been achieved in well under a year. Unfortunately, I feel 2017 will be far more difficult to generate as many money-making ideas, that in part is another reason for me not wanting to disclose as many of my actual trades going forward.
I have tried to avoid mistakes in compiling this but it was time consuming. I hope people can point out any areas you may think on the table if I am being too generous with the returns and I can adjust accordingly if needed. Please excuse the poor formatting of the table below.
Hopefully most consider the ideas throughout the year were fairly well diversified and low risk, particularly combined with the higher cash levels I ran and some exposure to the gold sector and some REITS. Here is my final attempt it tracking some of this stuff. Please note I may or may not hold these stocks going forward and I will not necessarily document trades in these on the blog in the future.
Whilst I am quite happy with these results, the next topic I want to write about will not be as flattering to document! I want to review the situations I got wrong, and try and learn from them. After all, that was the goal of the blog. There will be quite a few!
|BUY PRICE||PRICE AT OCT 28||%||date bought||appx|
|OR PRICE WHEN||OR SOLD LEVEL||CHANGE||or mentioned||date if sold||months|
|ogc (sold)||2.9||3.88||34%||feb 13||Sep 30||9|
|nst (sold)||2.64||3.92||48%||Jan 20||Oct 6||9|
|rny (sold avg 18 & 12 used)||0.26||0.15||-42%||Jan 20||July 14||6|
|evn (sold)||1.97||2.77||41%||feb 13||July 4||5|
|ssm (half sold 79, using average)||0.52||0.9775||88%||jan 20||10|
|ptb (inc 5 c div)||0.38||0.51||34%||Jan 20||10|
|acl (inc cap return) (sold)||0.095||0.104||9%||Jan 20||April 29||4|
|kbc (sold 17.5 & 14 used)||0.17||0.1575||-7%||Jan 20||Sep 7||8|
|uos (inc 3 cents worth divs)||0.5||0.595||19%||Jan 20||10|
|nuf (sold)||7.61||8.33||9%||Jan 20||Sep 5||8|
|gnc (sold)||7.77||7.46||-4%||Jan 27||Mar 2||2|
|aac (sold)||1.29||1.8||40%||Jan 27||June 24||5|
|gjt (wound up)(inc 8.7 cents div)||1.96||2.777||42%||Jan 27||10|
|aik (not counting rights at 11 cents)||0.105||0.14||33%||Mar 29||8|
|hhy (sold)||0.104||0.11||6%||Jan 20||July 20||6|
|naga 3918:hk (inc 27c worth divs)||3.88||5.105||32%||feb 13||9|
|aiq (inc 1.5 cents capital return)||0.105||0.11||5%||Mar 2||8|
|vnl:ln (have inc 8c June cap return)||0.61||0.77||26%||Mar 2||8|
|clt (inc 1.25 cent div)||0.2||0.2725||36%||Mar 11||8|
|wpl (sold)||26.78||27.25||2%||Mar 25||July 20||4|
|facebook (short) (closed)||119||111||-7%||April 14||April 29||1|
|upg (takeover, inc 80 c cap ret)||1.05||1.27||21%||April 14||7|
|wmk (sold)||1.03||1||-3%||Jan 20||Mar 11||2|
|apw (adjusted for split)||1.2||1.32||10%||Mar 2||8|
|snc (inc 3 c div)||0.835||0.93||11%||Aug 2||3|
|eld (sold)||4.85||3.56||-27%||Jan 20||Sep 5||8|
|hhv (sold using 1.345 & 1.4)||1.22||1.3725||13%||May 16||July 21||3|
|gvf (sold)||1||1.055||5%||Jan 20||July 14||6|
|agf (sold)||0.83||0.895||8%||May 30||July 6||2|
|mvt (half sell 0.16, using average)||0.14||0.1625||16%||June 24||Oct 17||5|
|cyb (sold)||4.26||4.72||11%||June 30||Sep 12||3|
|ref (inc 1 cent div)||0.12||0.12||0%||July 22||4|
|top (sold)||0.595||0.705||18%||Aug 2||Oct 17||3|
|ncc (sold)||1.18||1.385||17%||Sep 2||Oct 17||2|
|agf (second time inc 55 cent dist)||0.955||0.99||4%||Sep 9||2|
|Average return of stock||18.8%||Average months held||6.1|
|PLEASE NOTE I MAY OR MAY NOT HOLD THESE AFTER THIS POST,|
|AND WILL NOT NECESSARILY POST IF I TRADE IN THESE GOING FORWARD.|