17 thoughts on “SHOULD I BUY ASX SHARES NOW?”

    1. Thanks Trent. My post probably offers no insight on what happens next in markets. But so much has happened in the last 6 months I found it interesting writing about some surprising things. I never imagined the new small retail punters would flock to shares at a time like this.

    1. Hi Dani,

      Normally I do tend to look at stocks that size with market caps low versus cash on hand.

      However a few years ago I made a rule of thumb not to get involved where Bentley / Keybridge had an influence on things. So I haven’t really followed it.

      Looks like it might have worked out for those who bought the last couple of months. Doesn’t look like many though looking at volumes. Most buying over the last few years might have been a stressful ride, judging by when I glance at it occasionally?

      Any thoughts yourself or any luck with it?

      Steve.

  1. Steve,
    Thanks a lot for that quick feedback.
    I are not really sure if YOW is legit, see you also are cautious around YOW.
    If you know it and trusted it then today was a reward for that.
    A headscratcher.

  2. Good article Steve, great to see you back.
    Good call on Wilson, i sometimes wonder if he’s lost his way, even if in general, he seems to be reasonably professional.
    In separate news I was pretty unimpressed with the lady from Coopers on a recent podcast this weekend.

    1. ps: don’t be surprised if you (we) get our full allocation in NAB … only bank paying out dividends, at a time they are encouraged to build capital

      1. NAB will be interesting, I wouldn’t have a clue how they will handle this. I mentioned a good experience with ANZ in 2009. But NAB that year massively scaled back a SPP that was about 20% in the money.

        Take a look at the RHC announcement today. I hope NAB don’t look at that for guidance as I hardly own any NAB shares! Yet RHC was almost a 20% in the money situation at SPP closing date I think. NAB just 10% or so, so fingers crossed.

    2. Thanks Simon, I think WAM should be happy to present all the periods of their performance figures and do so on an after fee basis. It is one of the rare LICs that can do so in an honest way and the long term figures will look fine. They should see it is a strength not a weakness. I know many others think the same way. I used to think he was good in all these issues but a bit puzzled now. On the board at ALF and that fund is still going and not wound up. Big buyback at ALF yet is on the board of future gen that are against buybacks. No buyback at WGB also.

      Also they might one day want to go activist on the likes of TGG / CIE. I don’t think it is a great look that their recent performance figures coincidentally get hidden after a lean trot. It might get harder for them in the future to criticise other LICs than it has in the past.

  3. Wednesday for NAB , and good calls on Wilson, hard to argue he’s consistent = red flag.
    interesting list of search questions in your article… QAN was definitely one i heard people asking about …

    1. Hi Steve,
      How did you go with the share buyback I put in 7500 and got 5000 back not happy same deal last time.
      Only the big boys get looked after again so much for being a shareholder

      Paul.

      1. Hi Paul,
        My comments here were more about my strategy to hold onto tiny share parcels as there is not much to lose. These days I don’t find it any admin burden in doing so. I held a tiny $600 or so NAB shares from memory. My hope was that when applications close the price would only be about 5% above the SPP price and same when NAB made their final decision. I think in such a scenario there may have been way less applications and then they fulfill all of them. Then if the price holds my $30k application can bank a profit perhaps around $1,500. Price could fall below that in a couple of weeks but could also go higher. Odds are in my favour. Cost of money is cheap these days.
        As it turned out markets are surging and demand is huge. I can’t complain with these things as my holding was so tiny anyway. So even though I applied for $30k, I got the minimum 2,500 parcel and sold first thing. (share price is much higher now!).
        Reading a bit more now since on these SPPs this year I think holders of bigger parcels than me might be getting screwed, so I can understand other’s frustrations.
        One thing to keep in mind though is retail investors get to decide when the odds are way more stacked in favour. For example making the bpay payment is easier when the stock subsequently goes to 25% indicative profit as we have witnessed on many SPPs this year. Institutions have to decide in a day or so and their new shares are only likely to be 7% or so in the money when they make the decision.
        Despite making that point though I think retail are getting a rough deal this year.
        But my strategy is purely keeping many different $500 or so parcels and seeing how I go. From that perspective I am not personally complaining about the process.
        Hope that long answer makes sense!
        Cheers
        Steve.

      2. This is Stephen Mayne’s opinion on some of these SPPs. Have a read of this and you are probably right to be annoyed.

        https://www.firstlinks.com.au/small-investors-miss-out-as-institutions-and-banks-cash-in

        I think he makes some good points.

        Although I think an article debating this needs to be balanced. I don’t think he touched on the benefits that a company has in securing that institutional component. That is, within a couple of days, they know they have the capital. Hypothetically, if a huge portion is left to the retail component, they have to wait weeks to know whether retail investors will have the appetite. Hindsight is a wonderful thing and now we know that many weeks later of course retail investors are hungry for SPPs that are 10-30% ”in the money”.

        Overall though I still agree with the Mayne article conclusion in that I think they should be giving much more of the institutional / retail split toward retail, compared with what they have been doing.

  4. “Veteran 22 year old’s that were old enough to have survived the great market panic of late 2018 so therefore know what to do now.”

    Great line!

    I’m reminded of a line from John Kenneth Galbraith: We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don’t know – and those who don’t know they don’t know.

    We stick to reading the numbers and investing based on those.

    1. Yes I like that line about forecasting and also your plan there. Having said that the 22 year old day traders that I probably offended I suspect made a killing again today and are laughing at me!

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