Category: Currencies

YEAR 9 STUDENT AND PART TIME MCDONALD’S EMPLOYEE GOES FROM 0 TO 13 INVESTMENT PROPERTIES DURING THE SUMMER HOLIDAYS – HERE ARE HIS 5 TIPS FOR BECOMING A PROPERTY TYCOON

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  1. LEVERAGE 2. LEVERAGE 3. LEVERAGE 4. LEVERAGE 5. HOPE

 

My ramble on the property market, the banks, APRA, index investing, market timing and diversification.

Ok so you probably gathered I am experimenting with a bit of click bait.

Continue reading “YEAR 9 STUDENT AND PART TIME MCDONALD’S EMPLOYEE GOES FROM 0 TO 13 INVESTMENT PROPERTIES DURING THE SUMMER HOLIDAYS – HERE ARE HIS 5 TIPS FOR BECOMING A PROPERTY TYCOON”

MORE LIC SUPPLY AND MARKET SENTIMENT COMMENTS, NEWS ON SOME HOLDINGS, FX UPDATE, DOMINOS PIZZA.

In my last blog update I shared my concerns about the number of new LICs that have come to the market of late. Not long after this I read another story to add to the supply picture.

Continue reading “MORE LIC SUPPLY AND MARKET SENTIMENT COMMENTS, NEWS ON SOME HOLDINGS, FX UPDATE, DOMINOS PIZZA.”

SSM, TTS, UOS & Currencies.

SSM – I took some profits on half my holding around 79 cents in the middle of the year after being in the stock since the previous year when it traded in the 20s. I didn’t have a strong view after those large gains whether the stock was particularly cheap or not. Continue reading “SSM, TTS, UOS & Currencies.”

Seinfeld, active fund managers underperforming, the pound and IG markets, AGF & KAR / NGE.

Seinfeld & fund managers underperforming

Firstly I want to touch on the volatility in the pound. Most of this year I have broadly favoured looking for foreign currency exposure when AUD/USD is above 75 and more so at 77 as a guide. Continue reading “Seinfeld, active fund managers underperforming, the pound and IG markets, AGF & KAR / NGE.”

AGF – The only way to invest in USD cash with a decent yield?

Last time I wrote about being underweight the AUD I suggested above 77 on AUD/USD was attractive to make such an underweight more meaningful. I would ideally like to be about 10% underweight around here, but stock selection is my main focus and I never like having too much in derivatives or low yielding assets to get to such a target. One way in which I have now managed that recently is by buying some AGF and also the GOLD ETF on the ASX which I already mentioned this week, more so when the AUD/USD around 76.4 but some higher. Continue reading “AGF – The only way to invest in USD cash with a decent yield?”

Various recent portfolio changes

I would have to admit I am quite staggered by the moves we have seen since Brexit. I am not surprised that the market found some support given the initial panic, but to post new highs so quickly together with highs in bonds and in the gold price was a shock to me. Continue reading “Various recent portfolio changes”

Didn’t fully catch the AUD bearish trade

I have benefited slightly from the falling AUD but overall probably a little disappointed I did not have more of an underweight after writing quite a lot about the high 70s being a very good opportunity to short AUD/USD. More recently after the RBA cut unfortunately there was no short term bounce to around 75 I was hoping for to further short. Continue reading “Didn’t fully catch the AUD bearish trade”

shorter term trading update

Not a great deal on my radar screen as it’s been a fairly quiet week or two, probably just the sharp fall last week in the AUD is on my mind.

In an ideal world it may claw back to 75 or so and at the same time some discounts open up in some offshore LICs so I can be underweight the AUD again. HHV, TGG, GVF and a closed end fund in the US are ones that I will monitor.

Not much to write about from the shorter term derivatives trades. A profit was made in the AUD short that I took too early. I’d prefer to short again on any bounce but not sure we can get to those recent highs of above 78 for the following reasons. Since I shorted last time at 77.40 note that we have seen a much lower iron ore price, far lower than expected CPI print, an RBA cut, and a much more dovish sounding RBA. The speculative position reports I noticed had a bit of a wash out of some of the AUD longs but I feel more could occur.The U.S. equity indices shorts are about at the same level I entered but at least the long coffee trade started well. I moved the stop up to 1500 now that it looks to have broken up into a new range, the downside is fairly small now if this doesn’t work out. Currently the price is up 5%.

AUD/USD – not sure!

Recently I went short on this as I suspected the RBA was quite uncomfortable with the currency in the high 70s. The level I got set was 77.40, and this morning I closed this trade at 74.85. I was fortunate with the low CPI figure after the trade and when the RBA cut rates it triggered a very extreme one day fall. I was targeting around 74 initially but because this fall was so extreme on the day, and since there have been some Australian economic releases that have come out quite reasonable, I have decided to leave this alone for awhile and close out.

short AUD/USD

I shorted the AUD against USD at 77.4 with a stop at 79.5. There looks to a bit of a resistance point just above 78 where I want to give myself a little wriggle room as perhaps many may stop out between 78.7 to 79.4. At this level I essentially moved from being 3% of the portfolio underweight AUD to 8%. For some perspective 8% is a meaningful position and 10-15% would be significant. From when the AUD/USD some years back was above 95 the underweight was generally more than 10% for the profitable move down to 75 over the last 5 years or so until late last year.

Whilst one can argue the AUD rally is based on fundamentally an increasing commodity price environment I feel this can easily come unstuck. As mentioned above I am only selectively bullish on certain commodities. The Australian economy is more exposed to the commodities I am bearish on, those that are more correlated to a positive global growth environment.

Some of the sentiment measures I have seen lately indicate shorter term traders now betting on a weaker USD, this certainly differs to what I wrote about when the blog started in January. Then I discussed the bullish USD trade as a classic “crowded” trade. I just regret not extrapolating that them to going underweight USD, instead of just covering my long USD position.

Fortunately, the weak CPI has transpired since and we are at 76.50 as I write having seen below 76. I have a target of 74 for the time being on this particular trade.