I thought this article may of be interest to the readers of my blog. My sense is that some Australian investors may rely too much on historical returns from the best global equity markets in history. Continue reading “Factors to Consider When Going Global with Your Asset Allocation.”
I thought I would go with this heading after seeing so many financial pundits on social media focusing on how right they were shortly after the recent correction. Continue reading “I was wrong! How to deal with FOMO in the markets.”
Is there even such a thing as a simple passive investment strategy?
Before rushing into ASX index ETFs or index hugging low fee LICs, there are many behavioural biases to think about. I will explore below what you should think about first to better equip yourself to this popular strategy.
Firstly, let’s get started early with the obligatory Warren Buffett reference you always come across from any financial article in the media. (Hey at least I didn’t put it in the headline with a huge picture like most do). I consider a key driver behind the popularity of ETFs in recent times is due to media attention given to Warren Buffett’s Berkshire letter in 2013 that discussed a strategy for the trustee for his wife’s inheritance. Continue reading “ASX INDEX ETFs, LOW FEE GRANDFATHER LICs SIMPLE NOT EASY.”
It is funny how in early January we see so many articles in the media from pundits predicting how the various asset classes will perform over the next 12 months. For these couple of weeks in the year, suddenly it is critical that we form an exact 12 months view of various asset classes, with often precise end of year targets.
There has been quite a bit of shift in what is driving performance on the ASX since the 3rd quarter of 2016. At that time, I was surprised to note the extent of the outperformance of small caps compared to large caps for the previous year. Continue reading “HOW TO RESPOND TO THE POPULARITY OF PASSIVE INVESTING?”
- LEVERAGE 2. LEVERAGE 3. LEVERAGE 4. LEVERAGE 5. HOPE
My ramble on the property market, the banks, APRA, index investing, market timing and diversification.
Ok so you probably gathered I am experimenting with a bit of click bait.
I first made comment about CLT for the share idea website back in March this year.
The stock was trading at 18 cents at the time and has since paid a 1.25 cent divided. Last week it received a proportional (83%) takeover offer at 28 cents. Continue reading “COMMENTS ON CLT, APW, AIK, GDXJ:US, RMS”
I have made a guest post on a website I only recently came across, but now see it as being a useful tool for many investors. My article here touches on points I probably have already made on the blog but thought I shall share the link here anyway.
Let me admit from the start I’ve been quite cautious about overall market levels for over a couple of years at least so it may pay to ignore this post!
Most are probably aware but I wanted to note the performance of the ASX larger stocks versus the smaller sized counterparts. Continue reading “Small Ordinaries major bull market, is it time to get a bit defensive? Sales of ELD & NUF.”
I would have to admit I am quite staggered by the moves we have seen since Brexit. I am not surprised that the market found some support given the initial panic, but to post new highs so quickly together with highs in bonds and in the gold price was a shock to me. Continue reading “Various recent portfolio changes”
I sold my EVN shares today at 2.77. Note this is purely from staying within my maximum allowable asset allocations as touched on in the “about me” section of this blog. I remain positive on gold. Continue reading “Rebalancing discipline.”
At the beginning of May, I did de-risk the portfolio via shorts in the Dow Jones and also some well out of the money put options in the S&P 500. Currently this decision is looking unnecessary, with May seeing risk appetite being fine. Continue reading “May update – market calm about the Fed”
The main thing I wanted to touch on was volatility which is fairly low again after spiking late January. On rare occasions I may examine using this reduced volatility to provide a little further protection by buying S&P 500 put options and I have elected to do so today. A few reasons have lead me to this. Continue reading “Volatility and some portfolio protection”
Firstly, I came across a very well written piece by Stanley Druckenmiller over the weekend that I thought needs sharing. It is a very quick read about the dangers of today’s investment environment that you may consider before being 100% invested in stocks. Before you get the impression it is yet another permabear piece, Stanley Druckenmiller has certainly criticised central banks in the past however his conclusion around 2012 was the stock market will likely benefit from these policies for at least the next couple of years. So it is interesting to note his concerns now as he is changing tune. Continue reading “Asset allocation themes to ponder that I use & useful web links”
It has been a much hated rally since January which should have seen enough bearish sentiment capitulation to potentially lead to weakness from current overbought conditions. Did it commence on Thursday in the U.S.? I will not go into details about why the May to November six months are often weak both in U.S. and Australia but point out stats at least in the US over the last 60 or so years are pretty compelling when the year is carved up into these periods. However, there are also some sound theories as to why this occurs. Combine that with the self-fulfilling factor, a market that has surged into April month end, and a market that is overvalued on many fundamental measures with poor market breadth and it becomes easy to take some chips off the table right now via the U.S. market as I just have. My cash equivalents weight (34%) is the highest it’s been since earlier in the year, and my equities weighting is quite low now as I have more exposure to commodities since. So I am quite defensive again, which is a change from recently having a suspicion stock markets could be dangerous to short as we go through to the end of April.
This week I shorted the Dow Jones September contract at an average of 17,740 (probably equivalent 17,900 actual index), for about 8% of the portfolio, and have a stop at 18,900 in that contract. There could be plenty of stops close to the all-time highs so hopefully that gives me some buffer if we see a little short covering.
Since the blog started I have had a suspicion Oil may form a bottom and now it has been climbing for 3 months or so and poking above the 200 MDA. Whilst I didn’t go seriously long at the bottom I felt it was better to slowly accumulate and upon stabilization and a rising trend there will still be plenty of time to profit. This is exactly how I played the gold sector which has worked extremely well in the last year. I do have some energy plays in the portfolio but dips in the oil price or related stocks I see as generally being opportunities to buy. My bullishness doesn’t extend to bulk commodities which I see as more correlated to global economic growth where the expansion is long in the tooth and lacklustre. Also with central banks either running out of bullets or if they have bullets the tools are now blunt, I don’t want to bet on strong growth around the corner. Silver has finally had a good week or so and significantly outperformed Gold. In the last fortnight Gold up just 3%, Silver up over 10%.