7 thoughts on “5 FACTORS FOR PROFITING FROM ASX LIC TAKEOVERS AND WIND UPS”

  1. Great reading as always Steve. I love your approach to finding and sharing value offerings.
    I was just doing due diligence on CIE recently. The discount to nta is decent and liked the idea of earning a yield on the $0.96 while paying $0.82. The problem is the fees eat up all of the extra yield earned from the discount and more. Was not going to touch it but the WAM buying is interesting. Also hold ALF and BAF. You brought BAF to my attention and look forward to the discount to NTA reducing and some decent capital returns.
    Im happy to see ALF’s recent off market buyback, but agree – it should be larger.

    What are your thoughts on APW?

    1. Hi Jason,

      Thanks for your comments.

      CIE I’m a bit the same as you. It’s probably a little firm now because of the WAM announcement. The discount isn’t enough for me but I like to have it on my watch list in the background. Wilson can sometimes move patiently on these things, think of CYA, WDE in recent times. Perhaps the right chance to buy comes in the year / years ahead?

      APW has been frustrating this year. I continue to hold but can’t shed much light on how it stacks up. We probably need to be a mind reader of George Wang’s and / or the activists thinking. Perhaps they can offer their thoughts here in the comments section 🙂

      I’d say thought that there is still about $1 of assets working away in the background for circa 55c current Val? The worry is how much fees are buried in the related party entities. I hold because I think this discount can largely compensate for that. If nothing happens activist wise then it might still be an ok investment but not that great from this level. For instance various hidden fees may be bad here but I don’t think it is anywhere to the extent of say URF, which I haven’t touched despite a huge discount.

      The APW assets themselves (exception is the Brisbane property, but maybe that will turnaround from here), have done reasonably well.

      I suppose also George Wang might consider cashing out one day (not really my base case). Ie maybe he thinks he wins the battle by buying out minorities below NTA then liquidating himself as pleases. Or maybe he can cash out to another large REIT. Other REITs are trading exceptionally strong so might get carried away making takeovers like in the last boom.

      On the other hand maybe another year ticks away and the shares are still 1.40 or worse and nothing changes!

      Cheers
      Steve.

    2. Funny you mentioned APW, unusual volume as I was typing the last response given liquidity is normally so low. Who knows whether it is positive or negative?! Interesting if it might be the buyback, directors, activists, or none of those mentioned.

      1. Thanks for the detailed response. Nothing interesting- just me buying a few more. The discount to nta is too hard to ignore. The cash return has been low on the companies’ asset values, but I think they have been spending money doing up their assets which has been helping the nta go up and making the tenancies more leasable. In this low interest environment commercial property prices should stay firm. Your right about buried related party fees. That is the unknown and the discount makes up for that.

  2. Thank you nice article Steve, BLA is going ok so far 🙂

    They sent me/us a reasonably useful letter dated 14 October, 2019 which had lots of constructive objectives that would really help and a very good attitude.

    Even though on the best/most constructive idea of a new manger proposal to a GM they apologised they haven’t been able to execute them “….yet”

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s